基于集对分析-可变模糊集的中国水利现代化时空变化特征分析

Spatiotemporal variation of water conservancy modernization using sets pair analysis-variable fuzzy sets modeling

水利现代化是由传统水利向现代水利转变的动态的、渐进的发展过程,科学评估水利现代化进程,对推进中国水利建设,促进社会经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。本文采用集对分析-可变模糊集评价模型和基于指数超标法的赋权重方法对2011年中国31省(市、区)的水利现代化水平进行综合评价,并分析研究2008-2011年间水利现代化指数的时空变化特征。研究结果表明:2011年中国水利现代化指数为3.28,处于水利现代化快速发展阶段。全国31个省(市、区)中,高于全国水利现代化平均水平的区域有21个。2008-2011年中国水利现代化指数分别为3.12、3.16、3.17和3.28;西藏、青海等19个省级区域水利现代化发展速度高于全国水利现代化增长平均水平。通过比较不同评价模型和不同赋权重方法对水利现代化评价的影响,可以看出,基于集对分析-可变模糊集评价模型和指数超标法赋权重方法可以在较少人工干预的情况下快速评价中国水利现代化程度,其结果与全国水利现代化实际水平较为一致,可为中国水利现代化规划和水资源管理提供理论依据。

Water conservancy modernization is a dynamic change process that supports social and economic development and the sustainable use of water resources. Understanding the water conservancy modernization process is fundamental work for accelerating water resource sustainable development and retaliating national modernization. Here, we used sets pair analysis-variable fuzzy sets modeling coupled with the exponential over-standard method to evaluate the index for 31 provinces in China in 2011 and spatiotemporal variation from 2008 to 2011. We found that water conservancy modernization in China is in a rapid development stage with an index of 3.28 in 2011 ; the water conservancy index is higher in eastern coastal areas and lower in inland areas. The index in 21 provinces was greater than the national average for water conservancy modernization across the whole country; and Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Shandong and Hebei ranked in the top five. The index from 2008 to 2011 was 3.12,3.16,3.17 and 3.28. The speed of development for water conservancy modernization in Tibet, Qinghai and 17 other regions was higher than the national average. The speed of water conservancy modernization accelerated in 2011. By comparing results estimated using other models and different weighting methods for water conservancy modernization, we conclude that the model proposed here can quickly evaluate the index of water conservancy modernization in China with less human intervention. Our evaluation results are consistent with the real situation and provide technical support for water conservancy planning and management throughout China.