干旱背景下农户生产要素投入行为研究——以华北平原为例

Production factors' investment of households under drought on the Northern China Plain

气候变化导致极端天气事件频发给农业生产带来巨大挑战,明确农户生产行为是否受此影响,是进一步研究气候变化适应措施的关键。以华北平原为例,基于问卷调查数据,运用计量经济学方法,分析微观农户生产要素投入行为,评估干旱及生计资本等因素是否影响农户生产要素投入及其影响在不同类别农户间是否存在差异。结果表明:干旱影响农户生产要素投入行为,优化要素投入结构是农户应对旱灾的主要措施之一。生计资本差异也对农户生产要素投入行为构成显著影响,尤其是自然资本和社会资本,自然资本和社会资本越丰厚,农户生产要素投入相对越少。此外,农户内在特质和外在自然经济条件也是影响农户生产要素投入行为的重要因素,包括农户家庭基本状况、种植结构和所在村的自然地理条件等。为提升农户应对干旱等极端天气事件的能力,相关政策制定应根据不同因素影响有所侧重。

Under climatic change, increased frequency of extreme weather events has challenged agricultural production. Understanding the impact of climate change on production factors＇ investment of household is important for designing adaptation measures for climate change. The overall goal of this study was to examine the influences of drought and livelihood capital on production factors＇ investment of household and determine whether influences are different among various households. Analyses were based on a stratified and random sampling of households and villages in three provinces on the Northern China Plain. We found that drought has a noticeable influence on production factors＇ investment of households, and self-consciously optimizing production factors composition is one of the master measures for farmers against drought. The sustainable livelihood analysis framework showed that production factors＇ investment of households also varies with different livelihood capital. Specifically, the more natural capital, the less production factors＇ investment so there may be economies of scale during agricultural production. To some extent, social capital influences the production factors＇ investment of household whereby households who join famer collaboration invest less production capital than those who do not. Physical capital has an insignificant influence on the production factors＇ investment of households. Farmer＇ s investment behaviors was also impacted by household characteristics, physical geography conditions and social-economic development conditions, family size, years of education of the household head and the age of household head, planting structure, terrain of the village, land quality and groundwater level. Policy-making should be emphasized according to different influencing factors in order to enhance the ability of farmers to adapt.