天津市儿童流感样病例变化趋势与呼吸道病毒病原的灰色关联分析

Changing trend of influenza-like illness cases among children in Tianjin City and grey correlation analysis of its association with respiratory viral pathogens

目的探讨天津市儿童流感样病例(ILI)呼吸道病毒病原体构成,分析ILI变化趋势以及引起ILI动态变化主要的病原。方法每周统计天津市儿童医院的流感样病例数据,并采集部分流感样病例的呼吸道标本采用多重RTPCR方法检测腺病毒(ADV)、副流感病毒(PIV)、流感病毒(Flu)、鼻病毒(RhinoV)、呼吸道合胞病毒(RSV)、人偏肺病毒(HMPV)、冠状病毒(CoV)、肠道病毒(HEV)以及博卡病毒(HBoV)。分别对流感季与非流感季每周检出的病毒病原数与ILI数据做灰色关联分析。结果呼吸道病毒的阳性检出率为56.49%,其中Flu占比最高39.15%,流感季的周ILI%变化与Flu的关联度最大(γ=0.871);非流感季与周ILI%关联度最大的是全部病毒阳性数(γ=0.884)。结论天津市儿童流感样病例中多种病毒均有检出,流感病毒仍是引起流感季ILI%变化的主要病毒病原。

Objective To explore the constitution of respiratory viral pathogens from influenza- like illness （ILl） cases among children in Tianjin City, to analyze the changing trend of ILI and the main pathogens inducing the dynamic changes. Methods The data about ILI cases in Tianjin Children＇s Hospital were analyzed each week, and throat swab samples of a portion of ILI cases were collected to detect adenovirus （ADV）, parainfluenza virus （PIV）, flu virus （Flu）, rhinovirus （RhinoV）, respiratory syncytial viruses （RSV）, human metapneumo virus （HMPV）, coronavims （CoV）, enterovimses （HEV） and human bocavims （Ht：bV） by multiplex RT - PCR. The contributions of the respiratory viruses detected each week to the dynamic changes of ILI in influenza and non- influenza seasons were assessed by the grey correlation analysis. Results The positive detection rate of respiratory viruses was 56.49 %, of which Flu was the most predominant respirovims （39.15 % ）. The grey correlation analysis showed that Flu had the maximum correlation with the weekly ILI% changes in flu season （ r = 0. 871）, while the number of the positive samples of all the above mentioned respiroviruses had the closest association with weekly ILI % change in non - flu sea- son （ r = 0. 884）. Conclusions Multiple respiroviruses are detected in the ILI cases among children in Tianjin City. Dynamic changes of ILI % are mainly due to flu virus in flu season.