基于季节趋势模型对宜昌市手足口病的预测研究

Prediction of hand,foot and mouth disease in Yichang City based on seasonal trend model

目的探讨移动平均法的季节趋势模型在手足口病预测的应用。方法基于宜昌市2010-2014年逐月手足口病发病率建立移动平均法的季节趋势模型,并将拟合值与实际值进行拟合评价。结果 2010-2014年手足口病的实际值与拟合值相对误差为5.310%,模型拟合较好。应用季节趋势模型可对2015年手足口病的发病率进行预测。结论基于移动平均法的季节趋势模型,能较好的模拟手足口病发病在时间序列的变化趋势,但因其计算简单,仅适用短期预测。

Objective To explore the application of seasonal trend model based on moving average method in prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease （HFMD）. Methods Based on the monthly incidence of HFMD in Yichang City from 2010 to 2014, the seasonal trend model based on moving average method was established and the fitting of the fitted values and the actual values was evaluated. Results The relative error between the actual value and the predicted value of HFMD from 2010 to 2014 was 5. 310%, and the fitting effect of the model was good. The seasonal trend model could be used to forecast the incidence of HFMD in 2015. Conclusions The seasonal trend model based on moving average method can simulate the trend of HFMD incidence in the time series, but due to its simple calculation, it is just applicable for the short - term forecast.