影子银行对不同类型商业银行经营稳定性的影响

本文首先对我国影子银行体系规模进行估算,然后构建我国商业银行稳健性指数,测度了我国16家上市商业银行的稳健性水平。在此基础上建立二次函数模型分别对影子银行规模与国有商业银行、股份制银行和城商行的稳健性之间的关系进行实证分析。结果发现,影子银行规模与国有商业银行和股份制银行的稳定性指数呈显著的U型关系,而与城商行的这一关系则不显著。从2012年开始,影子银行规模已经超出银行稳定性拐点,为此需要对影子银行采取适度监管政策,构建影子银行官方数据库,重构影子银行风险导向政府审计风险模型以及加强对商业银行表外业务的审计。

This paper first estimates the size of China＇s shadow banking system, and then constructs the robust index of China＇s com- mercial banks, and measures the level of stability of 16 listed commercial banks in China. On this basis, we establish quadratic function model and analyze the relationship between the size of the shadow banks and the stability of the state- owned commercial banks, joint-stock banks and city commercial banks. The results express that the scale of the shadow banks and the stability indexes of the state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock banks show a significant U-shaped relationship, while the relationship between the scale of the shadow bank and city commercial banks is not significant. Since 2012, the shadow banking scale has exceeded the inflection point of bank stability. Therefore, we should take appro- priate regulatory policies for the shadow banks, build the official database of shadow banks, restructure the risk-oriented government audit risk model for shadow banks and strengthen the audit of commercial banks off-balance sheet business.