高技术产业和生产性服务业互动关系的实证研究——以安徽省为例

本文选取2000-2013年共14年的数据,基于VAR模型,通过Granger因果检验和脉冲响应函数对安徽省高技术产业和生产性服务业互动关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,安徽省高技术产业同生产性服务业增加值之间存在长期协整关系,但具有一定的单向性,即生产性服务业对高技术产业的发展带动作用明显,但高技术产业对于生产性服务业发展的拉动和支撑效果并不显著,呈现出具有替代性的冲突局面。根据结论,本文分析了相关成因,并提出了相应的政策建议,对安徽省今后实现资源优化配置,推进产业结构合理化及产业间良性互动发展具有一定参考价值。

Based on the VAR model, through Granger causality test and impulse response function, this paper chooses the data from 2000 to 2013 to carry out the empirical research on the interactive relationship between high technology industry and pro- ductive service industry in Anhui province. The empirical results show that the added values of high technology industry and productive service industry have a long-term cointegration relationship. However the conclusion has certain partiality. Productive service has an obvious role in propelling the development of high technology industry while the supporting effect of high technology industry to the development of productive service industry is not significant. They present a conflict with substitution effect. According to the conclusions, this paper analyzes related causes and puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations. It provides a certain reference value to realize the optimal allocation of resources, promote the de- velopment of the industrial structure rationalization and propel positive interactive development between industries in An~ hui province.