中国货币政策预期管理问题研究——基于通货膨胀预期陷阱视角

对我国预期通胀与货币政策目标变量综合实证分析表明,我国目标通胀率、预期通胀率和实际通胀率三者之间是正向关联。目标通胀率对预期通胀率的影响程度显著但具有滞后性,"目标锚"的引导作用尚有待进一步发挥。通胀预期陷阱在我国具有很强的现实性,实际通胀率的波动幅度较大且上升有利于拉动正产出缺口,货币当局确实有人为地调高目标通胀和实际通胀水平来刺激经济增长的故意,货币政策时间的非一致性存在但并非显著。我国通胀的变动在很大程度上是由公众通胀预期推动的,结论凸显了货币政策管理预期的重要性,并提出了相应的政策建议。

Making comprehensive empirical analysis on expected inflation and target variables in China, this paper has found out that the target inflation, the expected inflation and the actual inflation are positively related in China. Target inflation has a sig- nificant impact on the expected inflation but this impact is hysteretic, and the guiding role of the ＂target anchor＂ is not de- veloped completely. Inflation expectation traps in our country has its reality, and the large volatility and rising of the actual inflation is conducive to stimulating the positive output gap. The monetary authority does have adjusted higher target infla- tion and actual inflation artificially to stimulate economic growth on purpose, and the problem of time inconsistency of monetary policy exists but is not significant. The change of inflation in China is largely driven by public inflation expecta- tions, and the conclusion highlights the importance of the expectation management of monetary policy and puts forward the policy recommendations correspondingly.