江西省农村居民消费水平的影响因素分析

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of the Consumption Level of Rural Residents in Jiangxi Province

消费、投资和出口是扩大总需求从而保证经济增长的三驾马车,2008年后世界经济的疲软使得中国的净出口显著减少。改革开放后的持续高投资使得想要单纯的靠继续提高投资来拉动经济增长已不太现实,中国不得不重新审视扩大内需的重要性和必要性。作为一个发展中的农业大国,农村居民消费市场潜力巨大,但长期的农村居民消费却明显不足,故缩小城乡消费差距、扩大农村居民消费是实现内需拉动国民经济稳定增长的重要途径。本文正是基于这样的背景下,对江西省2000—2013年的数据进行实证分析,发现江西省农村居民消费受永久性收入影响较大,受短暂性收入影响较小。除了受收入影响外,还受商品零售价格和存款利率的影响。笔者根据结论提出了相应的建议以改善江西省农村居民消费水平。

Consumption, investment and exports are three carriages of expanding aggregate demand in order to ensure economic growth. A weak world economy makes a significant reduction in China＇s net exports after 2008.After the reform and opening up, the continuous high investment makes it not realistic to stimulate economic growth by simply continuing increasing the investment. China has to re-examine the importance and necessity of expanding its domestic demand. As a developing agricultural country, the rural consumer market has great potential, but the long-term consumption of rural residents is obviously inadequate. Therefore, narrowing the gap between urban and rural consumption and expanding rural consumption are important ways to achieve steady growth in the domestic demand-led economy. Based on this background, this paper empirically analyzes the data from2000 to 2013 in Jiangxi Province, and finds that the consumption of rural residents in Jiangxi Province is largely influenced by permanent income, less influenced by transitory income, and also influenced by retail prices of goods and deposit interest rates. According to the conclusion, the paper puts forward corresponding suggestions to improve the consumption level of rural residents in Jiangxi Province.