农民工市民化的家庭消费效应研究:来自中国的证据

Study on the Family Consumption Effect of Peasant Workers Citizenization: Evidence from China

使用中国家庭收入项目(CHIP)调查数据,以家庭为基本研究单位,通过把城镇常住人口家庭划分为普通城市居民家庭、农民工市民化家庭和农民工家庭,以避免直接用农民工家庭与城市居民家庭的消费差量衡量农民工市民化消费效应的估计偏误,试图更加准确地估计农民工市民化的家庭消费效应并检验社会保障的作用。研究表明:农民工市民化能够显著提高家庭边际消费倾向,并且农民工市民化家庭的边际消费倾向比普通城市居民家庭高;农民工市民化还能降低家庭生存型消费在总消费中所占的比重,提高发展与享受型消费占总消费的比重,逐步改善消费结构;并且农民工市民化对家庭消费的影响不是一次性的,它通过:农民工市民化—家庭消费改善和教育水平与就业能力提高—总收入增加—家庭消费进一步提升,持续地推动家庭消费的增加,按现有速度测算,如果将我国1亿农民工家庭全部市民化,每年至少新增国内消费约5万亿。

This paper uses the Chinese household income project （CHIP） survey data, takes family as the basic research unit, divides the urban resident population families into ordinary urban residents＇ family, peasant workers citizenization＇ family, migrant workers＇ family, in order to avoid the estimation errors that the direct use of the consumption difference of migrant workers families and urban households measuring the consumption effect of peasant workers citizenization, trying to more accurately estimate the household consumption effect of peasant workers citizenization and verify the effect of social security. Study shows that ： the peasant workers citizenization can significantly improve family marginal propensity to consume, and the marginal propensity to consume of peasant workers citizenization ＇ family is higher than that of the ordinary urban residents＇ family ; peasant workers citizenization can reduce the proportion of household necessity consumer in the total consumption, improve the proportion of the development and enjoyment of consumption in the total consumption, and gradually improve the consumption structure ; and the impact of peasant workers citizenization on household consumption is not a one - off , through ： peasant workers citizenization - improve household consumption and the education level and employment ability - increase total revenue - further improve household consumption, continue to promote the increase of household consumption . According to the existing speed measurement , if one hundred million migrant workers＇ family of our country are citizenization, domestic consumption would increase five trillions at least per year.