我国通货膨胀惯性及其货币政策启示——基于后顾性菲利普斯曲线模型的实证检验

China's Inflation Inertia and Its Implication for Monetary Policy——Empirical Test Based on Backward-looking Phillips Curve Model

通货膨胀惯性内生于通货膨胀动态演进系统中,并会制约外生货币政策冲击对通货膨胀的影响,进而导致实现货币政策目标的成本增大。纯前瞻性的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线不包含内在的通货膨胀惯性,无法用来描述和解释通货膨胀惯性问题。构建包含通货膨胀粘性假设的后顾性菲利普斯曲线模型,并采用1996—2013年的季度数据来描述我国通货膨胀的惯性动态特征,结果表明:我国通货膨胀具有较强的惯性,利率和货币供应量对通货膨胀的影响显著。较高的通货膨胀惯性意味着刺激经济的货币政策会导致较高的反通货膨胀成本,中央银行应该赋予控制通货膨胀目标更高的权重,并将市场型货币政策工具作为抑制通货膨胀的主要手段。

Inflation inertia is endogenously produced in inflation dynamic evolution system,can restrict the influence of exogenous monetary policy shock on the inflation and further increases the cost to realize monetary policy objective. The pure forward-looking Phillips Curve does not include intrinsic inflation inertia and can not be used to describe and explain inflation inertia. This paper is based on a backward-looking Phillips curve model including sticky inflation assumptions to describe the dynamic feature of inflation inertia in China during 1996-2013. The results show that the inflation in China has strong inertia and that the impact of interest rates and money supply amount on inflation in China is significant. Higher inflation inertia means that the monetary policy to stimulate the economy will lead to higher disinflation costs,and Central Bank should give higher weight to inflation goal and take market-oriented monetary policy tool as the main method to inhibit the inflation.