云南盘龙河流域53年来蒸发量变化分析及预测

The Evaporation Change Analysis Over the Past 53 Years and Future Changes Trend Prediction in Pan Long River Basin

利用盘龙河流域1961—2013年蒸发皿蒸发量观测资料,分析了盘龙河流域蒸发量的变化特点及其未来变化趋势.结果表明:1)53年来蒸发量呈十分显著的减少趋势,其变化速率为-23.90 mm/10 a,53年来减少了126.7 mm,各季蒸发量与年变化趋势一致,均呈减少趋势;2)年蒸发量与春季、雨季呈显著的突变减少趋势;3)秋季5 a、冬季6 a的变化周期十分显著;4)R/S分析法与均生函数预测模型预测结果具有一致性,预示着盘龙河流域未来蒸发量将可能仍呈显著的减少趋势.

This study used Pan long river basin evaporation observation data from 1961 to 2013, analyzed the change characteristics of Pan long river basin evaporation and its future trends. The results showed that：（1）The evaporation decreasing trend was very significant and decreased by 126.7 mm in recent 53 years, and the change rate was-23.90mm/10 a. Evaporation was consistent with the annual season trends and all showed a decreasing trend.（2）The annual evaporation and spring,rainy season significantly tended to mutation decrease.（3）Change cycle was significant which performed as autumn for fire years, winter for six years.（4）R/S analysis method and the prediction of mean generating function suggested that pan long river basin future evaporation still showed a trend of decrease.