跨越中等收入陷阱:国际经验与中国出路

Avoiding the Middle Income Trap:International Experiences and China's Way Out

导致一个经济体陷入中等收入陷阱的因素很多,包括技术、产业、收入等,增长的"极限","均值回归",社会矛盾等等。从拉美国家的经历,可得到如下教训:开放中没有制定合适的政策,城市化与工业化错位,民粹主义带来发展的波动。中国的改革在很多方面获得了效率的提升,下一步效率与竞争力的源泉在于重置社会存量资产:一是改革庞大的行政事业部门,释放生产性资源,为财政减压;二是推进国有企业改革,发展混合所有制经济,实现经济主体在资源选择和获取上的机会公平,削弱资本、技术的行政垄断力量,促进全社会资源的更加高效利用。

A country can fall into the middle-income trap for various reasons,such as factors of technology,industry and income,growth limit,regression toward the mean,and social problems.The history of Latin American countries shows that the following problems must be avoided:opening up without devising appropriate policies,mismatching urbanization and industrialization,and fluctuations caused by populism.China' s reform has led to improving efficiency in many aspects.To further improve efficiency and competitiveness,China should reallocate existing social assets.First,it should reform the large numbers of administrative departments and public institutions and revitalize production resources to reduce fiscal pressures.Second,it should reform the State sector,promote mixed economy,increase opportunity fairness in terms of resource distribution among various economic entities,and reduce administrative monopoly over capital and technology,so that social resources can be utilized more efficiently.