金融危机与中等收入陷阱

Financial Crisis and Middle Income Trap

中等收入陷阱源于中等收入经济体的经济不稳定,而经济不稳定则主要源于频繁爆发的金融危机。中等收入经济体之所以频发金融危机,是因为其经济与社会转型所引发的一系列结构问题。避免中等收入陷阱,关键在于防范金融危机:政治上,要建立强有力的支撑改革和审慎监管的体制;政策上,要及时、审慎地推进财政改革和金融改革;技术上,要实施宏观审慎监管,雏持金融稳定,并建立有效应对危机和加速危机恢复的机制。中国正处于中等收入阶段,要跨越中等收入陷阱,关键同样在于避免金融危机。而防范金融危机的关键,主要在于防止不稳健的金融自由化和对企业债务问题的不当处理。

The middle income trap is caused by mid-income economies' economic instability,which results from frequent financial crises in those countries.The key to avoiding the middle income trap is to prevent financial crises,and to that end,those countries need to establish strong political framework to support reform and prudential regulation.They should devise policies to push fiscal and financial reform in a timely and prudential manner.Technically,they should resort to prudential macroeconomic regulation to maintain financial stability and establish mechanisms to effectively handle financial crises and accelerate post-crisis recovery.As a middle-income economy,China is also facing the risk of encountering financial crises and the key to guarding against future financial crisis is to prevent unsound financial liberalization and mismanagement of corporate debts.