山西省朔州市冬季气温变化特征与暖冬的气象成因及对农林业的影响

Winter Temperature Changes Change Characteristic Analysis of Shuo Zhou and Causes of Warm Winter Weather And the Impact on Agroforestry

为了揭示朔州市冬季的气候变化规律,特别是近年冬季的气候变化特点,运用气候倾向率、相关分析等统计方法,根据山西省朔州市6个气象观测站1988-2005年冬季平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温资料,对朔州市近18年来冬季气温变化做了分析。结果表明,自20世纪70年代,朔州市冬季气温总体呈逐年上升趋势,1988年后的18年,朔州市出现15个暖冬年,冬季平均气温变化趋势不太明显,平均最高气温呈下降趋势,平均最低气温呈上升趋势,但与20世纪后30年相比,升温速率明显下降。冬季平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温的最大增温率均出现在1月,1月变暖趋势最为明显。结论认为,这种经常出现的气候异常,有一定的气象成因,对农林业的生产产生了很大的影响,本文对此进行了分析和讨论,并提出了降低暖冬对农林业危害的建议。

In order to promulgate the winter climatic change rule of Shuo Zhou city, specially nearly 18 years winter climatic changecharacteristic. Use climate tendency rate, correlation analysis, and other statistical methods, according to Shuozhou City's six meteorological observation station near 18 (1988-2005) average winter temperatures, the average maximum temperature, the average minimum temperature data, nearly 18 Shuozhou City winter temperature changes made to analysis; The results are as follows. Since In the 1970s, Shuozhou City winter temperature was gradually rising trend overall, in 1988 after the 18, Shuozhou City's warm winter in 15 years; nearly 18 winter mean temperature trend is not obvious, the average maximum temperature decreased, the average minimum temperature showed an upward trend, but the 20th century 30 compared to heating rate has declined markedly. The average temperature in winter, the average maximum temperature, minimum temperature of the greatest average rate of warming appear in January. January warming trend most visibly. It shows Such frequent climatic anomalies, a certain meteorological causes of the production of agricultural and forestry industry have had a great impact, the authors have conducted an analysis and discussion, and proposed lowering of agroforestry warm winter against the proposal.