公共投资对私人投资的影响：挤出还是引致被引量：16

The Impact of Public Investment on Private Investment in China: Crowd-out or Crowd-in

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摘要公共投资增加对私人投资具有正负两个方面的影响,而政府治理效率改善可以通过提高公共投资的效率和降低私人投资的成本从而促进私人投资。基于中国1995—2012年的省级面板数据实证分析表明,中国的公共投资显著地促进了私人投资,可能的原因在于公共投资的主要方向是基础设施、人力资本等,形成私人投资的有益补充。实证结果还表明中国政府治理效率改善显著地促进了中国的民营企业投资,而对国有企业投资的影响则没有通过显著性检验。 This paper tests the impacts of China's public investment on private investment. Firstly,it uses a simple theoretical analysis to indicate that public investment has both positive and negative impacts on the private in-vestment,while the improvement of institute quality will promote the private investment through raising the effi-ciency of public investment and reducing the cost of private investment. Next,based on China 's provincial panel data of 1995-2012,the empirical results of this study show that China's public investment significantly promote the private investment,which is possibly due to the main direction of China's public investment in infras-tructure,human capital etc.,and is a useful complement in private investment. The results of the empirical re-search also indicate that the improving of institute quality will significantly promote the private enterprises' investment,while it has no significant impacts on the state-owned enterprises investment.

作者刘生龙鄢一龙胡鞍钢

机构地区中国社会科学院数量经济技术经济研究所清华大学公共管理学院清华大学国情研究院

出处《学术研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2015年第11期64-73,160,共10页 Academic Research

基金中国社会科学院哲学社会科学创新工程项目“人口老龄化经济增长效应理论与实证研究” 2013年度教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“老龄化对中国经济发展的影响及应对策略研究”(13JZD005)的阶段性成果

关键词公共投资私人投资挤出效应引致效应

分类号 F812 [经济管理—财政学] F224 [经济管理—国民经济]

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