中短期任务的太阳质子事件通量预报研究

Study on Forecast of Solar Proton Event Fluence during Short and Medium Term Missions

太阳质子事件通量的预测对航天器的抗辐射加固设计和宇航员的出舱活动具有重要意义。针对1年以下的中短期航天任务,对太阳活跃年和太阳平静年分别统计了太阳质子事件和大于10 Me V质子事件通量的发生概率,分析得到太阳质子事件通量分布基本符合对数正态分布。在此基础上,计算出了一定置信度下1年以下不同航天任务期内的质子事件通量分布,为执行中短期航天任务提供了太阳质子事件通量预测的依据。

Forecasting the solar proton event fluence is very important to guarantee the safety of spacecrafts and astronauts. Within various periods less than 1 year,the occurrence probabilities of the solar proton events and their fluences were analyzed for solar active years and solar quiet years,respectively. It is found that the probability distributions of solar proton event fluence basically satisfy the log-normal distributions. Based on this,solar proton event fluence can be forecasted with some given confidence levels for different duration space missions ranging from 1 day to 365 days.