中国农业碳排放省域差异与驱动机理研究——基于30个省(市、区)1993～2012年的面板数据分析

Provincial differences and driving mechanism of agricultural carbon emission in China

文中在测算我国30个省(市、区)农业碳排放量的基础上,利用LMDI模型分析了各自的驱动机理。研究结果表明:1)我国农业碳排放在省域层面呈现较为明显的空间非均衡性。30个地区在考察期内农业碳排放量有增有减,按照变化趋势差异可将其划分为"持续下降型"、"波动下降型"、"持续上升型"与"波动上升型"等四类地区;农业碳排放强度均呈下降趋势,其中以海南降幅最大,黑龙江降幅最小。2)效率因素是抑制各地区农业碳排放增加的关键性因素,在所有省份均发挥了重要作用;结构因素与劳动力因素在一定程度上抑制了农业碳排放量的增加,但与效率因素相比差距却较为明显;经济因素则是导致各地区农业碳排放增加的关键性因素,所有地区农业经济水平的快速提升均导致了各自农业碳排放总量的不断增加。

This study estimated agricultural carbon emissions of 30 provinces in China,and then analyzed the drive mechanisms using LMDI model. The results showed that：（ 1） China＇s agricultural carbon emission presented a rather significant spatial non- equilibrium at provincial level. Agricultural carbon emissions of 30 regions increased or decreasec during the study period,and could be classified as four types in accordance with its changing trend： ＂ continuous declining＂ type, ＂ declining with fluctuations＂ type, ＂ continuous rising＂ type,and ＂rising with fluctuations＂ type. Agricultural carbon emission intensity showed a downward trend,the largest in Hainan,and the smallest in Heilongjiang.（ 2） Efficiency was a key factor inhibiting the increase in agricultural carbon emissions in various regions,and it played an important role in all provinces. Structure and labor also inhibited the increase to some extent,but much smaller compared with efficiency. The economy factor was a key factor contributing to the increase in agricultural carbon emissions. Rapid improvements of agricultural economic level in all regions had led to ever- increasing amount of agricultural carbon emissions.