100km附近大气密度模型的误差带和置信度

Error band and confidence coefficient of atmospheric density models around altitude 100 km

利用TIMED/SABER卫星观测数据和地面Rayleigh散射激光雷达测量数据,以密度为例,对100 km附近常用大气经验模型USSA-76,NRLMSISE-00和数值模型WACCM进行了评估,给出了它们在典型高度(80,90和100 km)的误差带和置信度.模型和观测数据的比较表明:相同置信度条件下,USSA-76,NRLMSISE-00和WACCM的误差带均随着高度上升而增大.高置信度(>95%)条件下,NRLMSISE-00和WACCM的误差带,在高度80和90 km约为?50%甚至更小(?30%),优于USSA-76(约为?80%);在高度100 km,三者接近,大约都是?80%.进一步分析表明,由于USSA-76是基于北半球中纬度探测数据的经验模型,故在极地区域,在相同误差带要求下,它的置信度不及NRLMSISE-00和WACCM模型.

The present work analyzes the prediction accuracy of USSA-76, NRLMSISE-00 and WACCM atmospheric models at around 100 km altitude, by using the TIMED/SABER satellite data and ground Rayleigh observation data. The error band and confidence coefficients of these models at typical altitudes（80, 90, 100 km） are given. The comparison of the density data by the models and the satellite data shows that, under the condition of equal confidence coefficient, the error bands of all three models increase with increasing altitude. For high confidence coefficient（95%）, the error band of NRLMSISE-00 and WACCM at 80 km and 90 km is ？50% or smaller（？30%）, better than USSA-76（around ？80%）; at 100 km altitude, the error band of all three models are similar, which is around ？80%. Further analysis shows that, since USSA-76 is based on the northern hemisphere observation data, in polar region, its confidence coefficients are lower than those of NRLMSISE-00 and WACCM.