中国经济特区发展和转型的制度本源效应追溯--基于特区经济发展30年的经验证据

Tracing Origin Effect of Institutions for the Development and Transition of China's Special Economic Zones

作为中国现代化建设的制度和路径试验区,中国经济特区已经为全国的改革开放事业做出了重要贡献,其自身也取得了巨大成功。以特区这样的先行地区和试验地区作为研究对象将为全国未来经济增长和转型提供新的理论借鉴和参考视角。向市场化程度更高的制度体系转型促进了特区上个世纪80年代的飞速崛起,但过度依赖制度模仿,造成特区内在发展动力不足和持续增长的乏力。从特区实际出发,构造最能反映市场参与者制度反应特征的四个代理变量:对外开放程度、非国有企业产业比重、对内开放程度和非财政收入比重,分步进行变量回归以比较制度增长效应的真实作用机制。结果表明:(1)不同于整体区域,在局部区域制度的作用方式呈现滞后性特点;(2)制度增长效应在长期表现出递减趋势,在初期促进了特区繁荣,当特区发展到一定高度时反而失去了与经济发展的相关性。促进特区早期成功实践的制度体系并不必然保证特区未来的持续繁荣,特区的可持续发展依赖于制度的适应性变迁,危机而不是繁荣往往更有利于制度创新发生。

As the experimental zones of system and path for China＇s modernization,Chinese special economic zones have made important contribution to the reform and opening up policy for the country.Also,they have achieved great success themselves.As the antecedent areas and experimental zones,we take them as the research object to provide new theoretical reference and perspective for China＇s economic growth and transformation.Shifting to a higher degree of market-oriented system has promoted the rapid rise of the Special Economic Zones in the 1980 s,but excessive dependence on imitating institutions caused the lack of internal development capacity.According to the actual situation of SEZs,we find four proxy variables which can best reflect system reaction to the market participants of the Special Economic Zones that include external openness,internal openness,proportion of non-state-owned enterprises and non-financial income proportion.Next step,we compare the actual mechanism of institutions to economic growth by stepwise variable regression.The result shows that,（1）different from the overall area,institutions have characteristics of hysteresis in the local area,（2）the growth effect of institutions showed a decreasing trend in the long-term,and institutions promoted the prosperity of Special Economic Zones in the early days,but it would lose correlation with economic development when economic has developed to a certain height.Crisis rather than prosperity is conducive to the occurrence of institution innovation.