基于ISM与优序对比法的油气管道第三方破坏致因分析

Analysis on the Causes of Third-party Damage to Oil-gas Pipelines Based on ISM and Optimal Sequence Method

为系统地分析油气管道第三方破坏发生的原因,针对油气管道第三方破坏致因因素的多样性和复杂性,首次运用ISM(解释结构模型)理论建立了油气管道第三方破坏致因因素的解释结构模型,构建了一个六层递阶结构综合系统,并采用优序对比法计算递阶系统各层次因素的权重。研究表明:通过建立的解释结构模型清晰地揭示了油气管道第三方破坏发生的表层直接原因、中间层间接原因和底层根本原因;采用优序对比法可找到各层次原因中的关键因素,并在此基础上有针对性地提出三层分级应对策略,可为油气管道第三方破坏事故的安全防范工作提供科学依据和方法指导,也可为管理者制定风险框架提供参考。

In order to systematically analyze the causes of third-party damage to oil-gas pipelines, considering the di versl tem by and complexity of the causing factors,this paper establishes a 6-layer hierarchical structural integrated sys- developing the Interpretative Structural Modeling （ISM） for the causes of third-party damage to the oil-gas pipeline under the ISM theory,and calculates the weight values of factors at all layers of the hierarchical system by the optimal sequence method. The paper shows that the ISM clearly reveals the direct, the indirect as well as the fundamental causes of third-party damages are the top, middle and bottom layer respeetively^it also finds out the key factors from all layers of the causes by optimal sequence method, and puts forward a 3-layer classified strate- gies. The study provides scientific basis and methodological guidance for preventing third-party damage to oil-gas pipeline and reference for managers to make the risk framework.