现金股利的“庞氏循环”——来自上市公司分红能力、现金股利以及投资活动的经验证据

“Ponzi Circulation” of Cash Dividends——Evidence from Capacity and Payment of Cash Dividends, Investing Activities of Chinese Listed Firms

本文基于2001-2013年A股上市公司的分红能力的测算以及先进股利的实际发放情况,分析了现金股利对企业投资活动的影响。虽然现金股利一定程度上能够抑制过度投资,但资本市场上也存在长期自由现金匮乏企业通过发放现金股利获得外部融资便利,从而得以提升后续投资活动水平的混同均衡。现金股利是这类企业迎合监管及投资者,也是其依赖外部融资进行投资扩张的重要一环。因此,强制性的现金股利政策并不一定能够缓解企业的"圈钱行为"从而保护投资者利益。

By examining the capacity and actual payments of cash dividends a sample of Chinese listed firms during 2001 and 2013, this paper analyzes the impact of cash dividends on firms＇ future investment levels. On the one hand, cash dividends do limit future overinvestment, while on the other hand, the theoretical model and empirical results show that a pooling equilibrium in which firms with insufficient free cash relax their financial constraint and raise funds for future investments by paying dividends exists. Catering to regulators and investors enables the firms to sustain their financing-driven investments. Given the existence of pooling equilibrium, the regulation policy which requires mandatory dividends of firms in negligence of the cash flow generation of firms may not be inefficient to reach its target of investor protection.