2015年6-8月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

Performance Verification of Medium-Range Forecasting by T639 and ECMWF and Japan Model from June to August 2015

对2015年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本(文中简称EC和JP)数值模式的中期预报产品进行了对比分析和检验,结果表明:三个模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能,其中EC模式的预报效果最好。EC模式对西太平洋副热带高压的预报较为准确,T639模式的预报与实况存在一定偏差。三个模式均能较好地预报出2015年7月新疆持续性高温天气,且对北方地区850 hPa温度的预报较零场均偏高。在南方地区,三个模式预报的温度偏差比北方地区小,EC模式的预报效果优于T639和JP模式。对于1513号台风苏迪罗,T639模式较好地预报了台风的登陆位置和路径变化,强度预报略偏强,而EC模式预报的台风登陆时间偏早。

The results show that all of the three models can predict the variation and adjustment of the atmospheric circulation over Asian middle and high latitude areas well,of which ECMWF model performs the best.The ECMWF model has a good performance in predicting the activity of western Pacific subtropical high,while the prediction of T639 model shows some biases compared with the observation.The three models can predict the persistent high-temperature in Xinjiang in July 2015 well and the prediction for 850 hPa temperature is a little higher than observation in Northern China.For Southern China,the three models have smaller biases in temperature prediction than for Northern China,and the ECMWF model has better performance than T639 and Japan model.As far as Typhoon Soudelor（No.1513） in concerned,T639 model performs better in predicting its track and landing position,although the predicted intensity is a little higher.The predicted landing time of Soudelor by ECMWF model is earlier than the observation.