人民币国际化和经济结构良性互动可持续发展悖论

Paradox of Sustainable Development of RMB Internationalization and Economic Structure Benign Interaction

通过经常账户顺差下的贸易或资本金融项目输出人民币均会面临规模限制、风险和结构调整问题,货币国际化要真正大幅度推进必须依靠经常账户的逆差实现本国货币的境外输出和积累。而经常账户逆差、储蓄率降低、经济虚拟化和去工业化之间不断循环强化,最终国内实体经济的相对萎缩和虚拟经济的不断泡沫化,引发经济金融危机和人们对比国货币的信心丧失,货币国际化将出现"逆转"和"倒退"。因此,人民币国际化的推进必须选择国际化最优程度、制造业国际竞争优势和虚拟经济规模的最佳组合。

The article analyzes the export of RMB through the trade projects in the current account surplus or the capital and finance projects,which will face the problem of scale restriction,risk and structure adjustment. Great advance of currency internationalization ultimately must rely on the current account deficit to achieve offshore output and accumulation of the currency. Because of continuous circulation strengthening between the current account deficit,savings decrease,economic virtualization and deindustrialization,finally,domestic real economy relative atrophy and the virtual economy continues to bubble,causing economic crisis,financial crisis and people lose confidence on this currency,currency internationalization appeared ＂reversal＂and ＂backward＂. Therefore,RMB internationalization advancement must choose the best combination of RMB internationalization optimal degree,making industry international competitive advantage and the scale of fictitious economy.