基于灰色关联的吉林省生态足迹与经济增长演进分析

Analysis on Evolution and Gray Correlation between Ecological Footprint and Economic Growth in Jilin Province

基于吉林省1998-2010年的生态足迹、生态承载力与生态赤字数据,利用PASW Statistics 18.0统计软件回归模拟,得到三者与人均GDP的演进模型,研究分析演进曲线特征.结果表明:吉林省的生态足迹、生态赤字与人均GDP演进曲线都呈现"倒U型",在2009年出现转折点;生态承载力的演进曲线与生态足迹的演进曲线呈反方向发展,整个曲线呈现"正U型",2008年达到拐点,吉林省总体生态环境处于不断改善的阶段.灰色关联分析表明:吉林省1998-2010年各类生态功能用地生态足迹与人均GDP的关联度排序依次为化石燃料用地>建筑用地>水域>耕地>林地>草地;三大产业比例对生态足迹与生态赤字的影响均为第二产业>第三产业>第一产业.为有效减小生态足迹与生态赤字,吉林省必须结合省情实施有效的策略,改变现有的经济增长模式,加快科学技术发展,提高人民素质,推动生态环境与经济的协调发展.

Based on the data of ecological footprint,ecological capacity and ecological deficit from 1998 to2010,the evolution models of ecological footprint,ecological capacity and ecological deficit with the economic growth are obtained by using the regression simulation of PASW Statistics 18. 0 statistical software in Jilin Province,and the characteristics of evolution curves are analyzed. The result indicates that the evolution curves of ecological footprint and ecological deficit accord with the ' inverted U' shape completely,the turning point has appeared in 2009; the evolution curves of ecological capacity accords with the ' U' shape completely,the turning point has appeared in 2008; the overall ecological environment in Jilin Province is in the stage of continuous improvement. The gray correlation analysis shows the order of Correlation between ecological footprints of all kinds of ecological function land and GDP per capita is Fossil energy area > buildup area > water area > arable land > forest > pasture; The effects on the ecological footprint and ecological deficit with the proportion of the three major industries are second industry,the tertiary industry and the first industry. In order to reduce the ecological footprint and ecological deficit of Jilin Province,Jilin province must be implement effective strategies combined with the situation of Jilin Province to change the existing mode of economic growth,to speed up the development of science and technology,to improve people's quality,and to promote the coordinated development of economy and environment.