北京城市总体规划中人口规模预测的反思与启示

Refl ection On Population Prediction In Beijing Urban Master Plan

城市人口规模的预测和规划是城市总体规划编制与审批关注的核心内容,人口构成的复杂性和人口增长的不确定性决定了人口预测与规划实施的巨大难度。从人口总量、人口增长来源和人口空间分布三方面对北京城市人口预测与规划的实施情况进行系统评估的结果显示,人口规划与现实脱节是城市发展的政策和理念偏误、市场规律的不确定性、规划实施和反馈机制的缺乏及城市规划自身功能限制等多重因素共同导致的结果。应转变以控制为导向的城市人口规划理念,尊重城市和人口发展的客观规律,以区域的视野和发展的眼光看待城市人口承载力,制定弹性规划策略,完善规划评估的反馈和响应机制,保障城市人口规划的合理性和可执行性。

Population prediction and planning is the core of urban master plan, yet the complexity and uncertainty of population growth makes the prediction exceptionally diffi cult. The paper evaluates the prediction and implementation of Beijing population from population size, growth origin, and spatial distribution, and observes the disconnection of planning and reality is essentially a result of urban development policy, market uncertainty, absence of planning implementation feedback, and the intrinsic shortage of urban planning. Population planning shall respect objective rules, deals with population capacity from regional and development viewpoint, makes elastic strategy, integrates planning feedback mechanism, and guarantees the rationality and feasibility of population planning.