2015-2016年中国宏观经济再展望

China's Economic Outlook in 2015-2016: Updates

"中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)"课题组于2015年9月发布了中国季度宏观经济模型第十九次预测。预测显示,2015年下半年中国经济增长可望企稳,预计全年增速7.10%,CPI增幅1.62%。受政策红利释放缓慢及结构调整的影响,2016年GDP增速将略有下降,CPI增幅则有所上升。课题组模拟了利率市场化的宏观效应,指出完成利率市场化将以有限的代价改善经济结构、疏通货币政策传导渠道;测算了中国至2050年的潜在增速,发现通过混合所有制改革、三产效率提升、人力资本培育可以提高长期潜在增速。课题组建议:稳增长政策应适应新的潜在增速,保持灵活性与一致性;通过利率市场化、配套财税政策和放开管制领域,激发民间投资活力;提高三产效率,既可避免结构性减速又能促进居民增收;加速人力资本积累。

On September 11,2015,the project team of ＂ China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model＂（ CQMM） held its19 th forecast of CQMM in Kobe,Japan. China＇s growth is forecast to moderate in 2015 to 7.10 percent,and CPI is expected to rise by 1.62 percent. Affected by outside lags of policies and structural adjustments,growth in 2016 will be slightly softer than in 2015,while CPI will rise a bit more. The project team has simulated the macroeconomic effects of interest rate liberalization,and suggested that the liberalization of interest rate will better the structure of economic and smooth the transmission of monetary policy. The project team has also estimated the long-run potential growth of China,and found a higher potential growth can be achieved with the reform of mixture ownership,the increase of productivity of tertiary industry and the accumulation of human capital. It is suggested that the policies should be more flexible and consistent to acclimatize to the new potential growth and to avoid frequently stimulus.Actions should be taken to boost the private investment,including liberalizing interest rate,offering fiscal aids and releasing access regulation. The productivity of tertiary industry should be stimulated to avoid slowdown and increase the income of people,and the latter will help in accumulating of human capital.