中国经济增长、能源消费与碳排放动态分析

Dynamic Analysis of Economic Growth,Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions in China

保持经济平稳增长、节约能源和降低碳排放是中国当前面临的重要问题。利用中国1960—2012年GDP、能源消费总量和碳排放的数据自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型,进行长期协整分析和Toda-Yamamoto(TY)检验,并对2013—2020年进行预测。研究表明,经济增长与碳排放存在单向因果关系,能源消费与碳排放存在双向因果关系;按照目前发展路径,与未来规划目标尚有一定差距,因此中国应制定经济增长、能源消费和碳排放相协调的发展对策。

To maintain steady economic growth, save energy and reduce carbon emissions is an important issue faced by China. By using the data of GDP, total energy consumption and carbon emissions from 1960 to 2012 in China, this article constructed the autore-gressive distributed lag ( ARDL) model, made the long-term cointegration analysis and Toda-Yamamoto ( TY) test, and predicted economic growth, energy consumption and carbon emissions from 2013 to 2020. The results show that there are unidirectional causalities between economic growth and energy consumption or carbon emissions, and bi-directional causality between energy consumption and carbon emissions. According to the current development path, there is a certain gap to the planning target. Based on the analysis results, some countermeasures are put forward for promoting the coordinated development among economic growth, energy consumption and carbon emissions.