摘要
本文首先对案例推理用于应急决策的可行性做了分析,然后根据案例推理的"运作-反馈-修正-再运作"闭环渐进过程,提出面向应急决策的案例推理流程;其后将决策人得出方案的心理活动定义为"酝酿-提示-启发-顿悟-验证"五阶段,继而提出"人-机"交互路径包括积极走向的直接启发式、触类旁通式、人机互助式,以及消极走向的因循附属式、利己满足式、独裁冒进式;最后提出目标案例决策方案的概念模型,用以描述决策人在案例库辅助下决策的实现机理。
Firstly, it analyzes the practicability of applying CBR to emergency decision-making. Secondly, it presents the decisionmaking process based on the closed-loop mode of ＂Operation-Feedback-Correction-Reoperation＂ . Thirdly, it defines the mental activity of decision making as five stages of ＂Brewing-Hint-Inspired-Epiphany-Verify＂ . Then, it summarizes interaction path between human and machine： the positive-oriented path as directly heuristic interaction, analogized drawing, human-machine cooperation; and passive-oriented path as subsidiary, autocratically self-satisfied and aggressive type. Finally, it proposes a conceptual model of target case＇s decision-making scheme, which describes the implementation mechanism of decision-making with the help of CBR.
出处
《中国科技论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第12期51-56,共6页
Forum on Science and Technology in China
基金
国家"十二五"科技支撑计划"国家应急演练仿真服务平台及其应用示范研究"(2013BAK03B07)
关键词
应急决策
案例推理
人机交互路径
决策概念模型
Emergency decision-making
Case-based reasoning
Interaction path of human-machine
Conceptual model for decisionmaking
