媒体干预下带有讨论机制的网络舆情传播模型研究

Study on the Internet Public Opinion Dissemination Model with Discussion Under the Effect of Media

【目的】通过构建带有讨论机制的舆情传播模型,研究媒体作用下网络舆情演变的内在规律。【方法】把媒体对舆情传播的干预作用抽象为强化度及分歧度,构建新的SIaIbR模型。根据舆情传播动力学方程,求解系统传播阈值,证明传播平衡点的稳定性。【结果】仿真结果显示,分歧度对于传播的影响要远大于强化度,当分歧度低于0.5时候,政府介入有助于网络舆情更快平息。【局限】仿真所用均为模拟数据,未能结合真实传播事例进行分析。【结论】研究成果为政府利用媒体干预舆情传播提供支持,也为进一步研究媒体干预下舆情传播问题提供参考。

[Objective] By building a dissemination model with a discussion of Internet public opinion, the paper studies the inner rule of the public opinion evolution. [Methods] Present a new dissemination model with a discussion of the mechanism named SIalbR, and express the impact of media on public opinion with the concept of Enhanced Degree and Divergence. According to dynamics equations, the equilibrium point and stability of the model are proved. [Results] The result of simulation shows that relative to the Enhanced Degree, the Divergence has an even greater impact on the dissemination of Internet public opinion. When Divergence is lower than 0.5, the government has a great impact on putting down the public opinion. [Limitations] Without combining reality disseminate examples. [Conclusions] The results can help the government take measures when facing the problem of Intemet public opinion propagation, and also provide some references for the further research on Internet public opinion.