风景名胜区旅游增长的非均衡性及其收敛研究

Research on Non-Equilibrium and Convergence of Scenic Spot Tourism Growth

利用泰尔指数测算风景名胜区旅游增长的区域差异,并将其分解为区内差异和区际差异,同时借助新古典经济增长的收敛理论对风景名胜区旅游增长进行了收敛和条件收敛性研究,结果表明:总体上,风景名胜区旅游增长的区域差异特征明显,1982-2013年,T值降幅为19.32%,且总体降幅大于其他时段,说明风景区旅游发展长时间序列范围内的区域差异在整体上减小;整个研究时段,风景名胜区旅游增长呈现"三降三升"的变化趋势,收敛与不收敛呈现并存的局面,σ在加入了不同控制变量后的旅游增长并未呈现出一致的β收敛,不同的时空尺度表现出差异较大的收敛效果,进一步表明风景名胜区旅游增长区域差异缩小的持续性且不稳定,收敛于相同的稳态均衡水平尚需时间。

In this paper,the regional differences of scenic spot tourism growth were measured by using Theil index, and the regional differences were decomposed into difference inside region and the interregional difference. At the same time with the convergence theory of the new classical economic growth, the scenic spot tourism growth was studied in convergence a and convergence β. The results show that： on the whole, the regional difference of scenic spots tourism growth is obvious from 1982 to 2013, the decreasing amplitude of T value is 19. 32%, and the overall decreasing magnitude is greater than other periods, it illustrates the regional difference of scenic area tourism development in long time series range is decreasing in the whole. During the entire study period, scenic spot tourism growth shows a trend of ＂three-times decrease and three-times increase＂ ,σ convergence and not convergence appears coexist, and the tourism growth dose not show consistent β convergence after adding different control variables. Different temporal and spatial scales show large differences between convergence effect, which further shows that the persistent narrowing scenic area tourism growth of regional differences is not stable, converges to the steady-state equilibrium level needs time.