基于改进GM(1,1)模型的服装配货决策研究

Study on Clothing Distribution Decisions Based on Improved GM(1,1)Model

服装产品配货决策影响服装的销售量、企业的服务水平,为制定合理的配货决策,服装企业需建立高精度的预测模型。文章建立了改进GM(1,1)模型,优化了GM(1,1)模型的背景值和初始值,并引入已销售产品的影响因子和干扰因子。以某服装品牌的销售数据为出发点,采用改进GM(1,1)模型对服装品类进行销售预测,预测结果表明:该模型适用于服装销售预测,且准确度较好,可为服装企业的配货决策提供理论依据和技术参考。

Clothing distribution decision has an important effect on sales of the clothing and the service level of a company. In order to develop a reasonable distribution decision, we need to establish a highprecision model. This paper established improved GM（1,1） model. This model optimizes the background value and the initial value of GM（1,1） model, and introduces influence factor and interference factor of sold products. Based on the sale data of a clothing brand, this paper adopted improved GM（1,1） model to predict the sale of clothing. The results showed this model is applicable to clothing sale prediction, and the accuracy is good. This model can provide theoretical basis and technical reference for distraction decision of clothing enterprises.