中国经济增长的驱动力研究——基于教育发展结构的视角

The Driving Force of Economic Growth in China:Evidence From the Perspective of Educational Development Structure

建立计量经济模型定量考察了1991～2014年中国高等教育和基础教育、教育发展质量提升和数量扩张对经济增长的贡献，结果表明：中国高等教育、基础教育发展的数量和质量与经济增长之间都存在长期均衡的协整关系；中国高等教育发展的质量和数量、基础教育的数量都与经济增长之间存在显著的双向因果关系，但基础教育质量对经济增长的影响不够显著；在几种教育发展变量中，高等教育发展的数量扩张对经济增长的贡献相对最大，达到32％，其次是基础教育和高等教育发展的质量，而基础教育发展的数量规模以及科技创新水平对经济增长的贡献相对较弱，仅为1％左右。

This paper develops some econometric models to explore the driving impact of edu- cational development on economic growth during 1991--2014 in China, including higher and basic education as well as educational quality enhancement and quantity expansion. The results indicate that China＇s higher and basic education development quantity and quality have significant long- term equilibrium with economic growth. There exists bidirectional causality between China＇s higher education quantity and quality as well as basic education quantity and economic growth, but only a uni-directional causality can be found running from economic growth to basic education quality. In addition, among the education variables concerned, China＇s higher education quantity contributes most to economic growth, with its contribution 32~, followed by basic education and higher education quantity, while basic education quantity together with technology innovation contribute the least, only around 1%.