EU ETS试验阶段微观交易大数据分析及其对中国的启示

Big Data Analysis of the EU ETS Trial Phase and Its Enlightenment on China

通过对欧盟独立交易登记系统(CITL)的抓取、识别、清洗与融合构建了全样本的交易大数据集合,完整地重现了欧盟碳排放权交易体系(EU ETS)在试验阶段的市场微观结构。进而从市场内部微观视角出发,对EU ETS的市场微观体系、排放企业的微观交易行为,以及市场供需微观演化等予以分析,结果表明在市场建立初期:排放企业的交易大多是以配额履约为目的;交易行为呈现活跃度低、季节性和同向性的特点;市场上少量的高排放企业凭借其在配额总量、资金和信息上的优势在交易中占据了主导地位。此外,微观行为数据还反映了金融部门在碳配额交易中的作用:配额在前期流向金融部门使得供过于求的状况有所缓解,但当配额流出金融部门时,市场供需失调的情况被迅速放大。在碳市场建立初期,理解EU ETS市场参与者微观行为特点以及潜在的风险,对中国即将启动的全国统一碳排放权交易体系的机制设计有重要的启示意义。

By collecting,processing and combining the Community Independent Transaction Log（CITL） data,the market micro structure of the trial phase European Union Emission Trading Scheme（EU ETS） was built.On this basis,the market setup,the trading behaviour of emitting companies,and the evolution of the market demand supply situation of the EU ETS were conducted.From a general perspective,the main motivation of emitting companies’ trading behaviour was for compliance.Consequently,their trading behaviour was found inactive,seasonal and inclined to resort only one type of behavior either buying or selling.The companies who had massive amounts of allowances therefore dominated the allowances trading by using their advantages of allowance stock,financial condition and information asymmetry.This paper also regarding the impacts of the participation of the financial companies,it was observed that the oversupply situation was eased when the allowances were absorbed by financial companies in the initial two years and became deteriorated,when the allowances were flowed out of them in the last year.Under the background of China preparing its unified national ETS,analyzing the trading behaviour of market participants and the potential risk of their behaviour can provide several enlightenments to design market mechanism.