人口老龄化对产业结构升级的动态效应与区域差异——基于省际动态面板数据模型的实证分析

Dynamic Effects and Regional Differences of Aging on Industrial Structure Upgrading——Based on the Empirical analysis of Provincial Dynamic Panel Data Model

选取2003～2013年我国31个省、市地区的面板数据，建立动态面板数据模型，利用系统广义矩估计（SYS—GMM）分析人口老龄化对产业结构升级的动态效应与区域差异。得出以下结论：人口老龄化、FDI、政策制度、技术进步对产业结构升级具有显著的推动作用，其中技术进步对推动产业结构升级的影响最大。FDI与产业结构升级呈显著的“倒U”型关系：政策制度对技术进步与产业结构升级的关系具有显著的调节效应。人口老龄化对产业结构升级的影响具有显著的区域差异性：在东、中部地区老龄化促进产业结构升级，在西部地区，老龄化抑制产业结构升级。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China during 2003 -2013, this paper, establishing the dynamic panel data model, analyzes the dynamic effect and regional differences of the population aging on the industrial structure upgrading by using the system gen- eralized distance estimation （SYS-GMM）. The conclusions are as follows. Firstly, the aging population, FDI, policy system and technological progress has a significant role in promoting the industrial structure upgrading, which technological progress has the greatest impact on the indus- trial structure upgrading. Secondly, there is a significant ＂inverted U＂ shaped relationship be- tween FDI and industrial structure upgrade. Meanwhile, the policy system has a moderating effect on the relationship between technological progress and industrial structure upgrading. Finally, there are obvious regional differences on influence of population aging on industrial structure upgrading. That is, the aging promotes the industrial structure upgrade in the eastern and central regions, but inhibits the industrial structure upgrade in the westem.