我国海洋经济增长与海洋环境压力的脱钩关系研究

Analysis on the decoupling relationship between marine environmental stress and marine economic growth in China

本文选取沿海地区工业废水直排入海量、工业废水中化学需氧量入海量、工业废水中氨氮入海量以及赤潮发生面积作为海洋环境压力指标,基于Tapio脱钩模型,引入脱钩指数构建脱钩状态评价指标,从时间和空间两个层面探讨我国海洋经济增长和海洋环境压力的脱钩状态演变趋势。结果表明：2002~2010年,各项海洋环境压力指标与我国海洋经济增长之间均呈现出扩张负脱钩、弱脱钩和强脱钩三种状态,但演变趋势各有不同;空间上,环渤海经济区海洋环境压力脱钩状态总体表现最优,各项污染指标基本稳定在弱脱钩和强脱钩状态;长三角经济区和珠三角经济区的脱钩状态总体波动较大,各项污染指标在多个不同时期出现恶化情形。基于以上研究结果,本文提出了相应的对策建议,以期实现海洋经济和海洋环境压力的完全脱钩。

Four marine environmental pressure indicators were chosen to construct decoupling evaluation index, namely industrial wastewater,the chemical oxygen demand （COD） of industrial wastewater,the ammonia nitrogen （AN） of industrial wastewater discharged into the sea and the area of red tide, to analyze temporal and spatial variation trends in decoupling status between marine economic growth and marine environmental pressure based on Tapio decoupling model with the application of decoupling index. Results showed that there were expansive negative decoupling, weak decoupling and strong decoupling between each marine environmental pressure indicator and marine economic growth with different variation trends from 2002 to 2010. Spatially, decoupling status between marine environmental pressure indicators and marine economic growth of Bohai Sea Economic Zone demonstrated to be optimal with stable weak de- coupling and strong decoupling. While there were significant fluctuations with decoupling status of Yangtze River Delta Economic Zone and Pearl River Delta Economic Zone, showing deterioration with each marine environmental pressure indicators during different stages. Corresponding policy suggestions were given based on the results to achieve complete decouphng between marine economic growth and marine environmental pressure.