土地城镇化驱动因素研究——以江苏省各地级市为例

Driving factors of land urbanization in prefectural cities of Jiangsu province

从供给和需求两方面系统分析土地城镇化的驱动因素,并以此为依据,利用面板数据固定效应模型对江苏省各地级市2004~2012年数据进行回归分析。分析结果显示,江苏省各地级市总人口、固定资产投资、地区生产总值、第三产业与第一产业增加值之比、农地保护相关政策对土地城镇化有显著的正向驱动作用,第二产业产值与第一产业产值之比对土地城镇化则有显著的负向驱动作用。研究结论认为：江苏省各地级市土地城镇化速度较快,人口和农地保护政策分别是需求和供给方面影响最大的驱动因素。

In this study, we ifrst analyze the driving factors of land urbanization on the supply and demand side. Based on that, we then adopt a ifxed-effects model of panel data to deal with data of al prefectural cities in Jiangsu from 2004 to 2012. The results indicate that population, ifxed-asset investment, gross domestic product , ratio of the added value of tertiary and primary industry, and farmland protection policy have positive and signiifcant inlfuences on land urbanization, while the ratio of the added value of secondary and primary industry has a negative and significant influence on land urbanization. Finally, we conclude that the speed of land urbanization in Jiangsu is high, while population and farmland protection policy are the most important factors on the demand and supply sides, respectively.