基于雷达资料人工增雨潜势预判方法的研究

Study on the Method of Forecasting Artificial Precipitation Based on the Radar Data

利用常规气象、天气雷达资料,分析有利于开展人工增雨的天气条件、可播云型,粗浅分析总结出基于雷达资料的人工增雨作业预判指标。结果表明,影响高原降水的主要系统有切变线、高原低涡、孟湾风暴和西方槽;5~9月降水量占全年的80%以上;对降水贡献率最大的可播云型为积云（Cb）和层积混合云（Sc＋Fc）,占全年可降水云型的80%以上;当不同云系平均回波强度≥10 d Bz、强回波强度〉20 d Bz、回波顶高〉5 km、强回波高度〉3 km时可作为作业指标。

The weather condition and seeding cloud which is conductive to carry out artificial precipitation was analyzed based on the routine meteorological data and weather radar data. The forecasting indexes of the artificial precipitation based on radar data were summarized. The re- sults showed that ： The main influence weather system of the plateau are plateau vortex, shear line, storm of Bay of Bengal and westerly trough ; The precipitation is accounting for more than 80 percent of all year from May to September. The type of seeding could that the greatest contribu- tion to the rainfall is Cumulonimbus（Cb） and Stratocumulus mixed cloud（ Se ＋ Fe）, accounting for more than 80 percent of all the rainfall cloud type ; When different cloud echo strength is equal or greater than 10 dBz, the strong echo intensity is greater than 20 dBz, the echo top height is greater than 5 km and the strong echo height is greater than 3 km, those can be used as the artificial precipitation forecasting index.