气候变暖背景下合肥机场极端气温变化特征分析

Analysis on the Variation Characteristics of the Extreme Temperature of Hefei Airport

[目的]探讨合肥机场极端气温变化特征。[方法]利用合肥地区1986~2013年逐日气温极值资料,采用线性回归法、M-K检验法、累积距平法及小波变换等方法,对近28年来合肥地区极端气温的变化特征进行了分析。[结果]气候变暖背景下合肥地区年温度极值以波动变化为主,极端高温日数增加不明显,极端低温日数却有极显著的增加趋势;极端高温日数7月份出现最多,极端低温日数1月份出现最多,8月份极端高温日数及12、1月份极端低温日数均有显著的增加趋势;极端高温日数2~4、5~6年时间尺度周期震荡明显,极端低温日数3年左右周期特征显著。[结论]极端气温对飞行活动安全和效益影响较大,航空气象服务部门结合极端气温变化规律及用户需要准确、有效地提供预报、实况资料,对提高飞行质量有重要意义。

[Objective ] The research aimed to discuss the variation characteristics of the extreme temperature of Hefei Airport. [ Method ] Based on daily temperature data of Hefei airport from 1986 to 2013, the variation characteristics of the extreme temperature in Hefei were ana- lyzed by linear regression method, Mann - Kendall method, accumulative anomaly method and the wavelet transform method. [ Result ] Under the background of climate wanning,the extreme value of the annual average temperature had fluctuation change characteristic in Hefei area. The extreme high temperature days increased insignificantly, but the extreme low temperature days had very significant increasing trend. The extreme high temperature days always appear in July, the extreme low temperature days always appear in January, the high temperature days in August and the low temperature days in December and January were increased obviously. For extreme high temperature days, the periodic oscillation was significant in period of 2 - 4 years and 5 - 6 years; for extreme low tempeature days, the period of 3 years showed distinctive characteristic. [ Conclusion] The extreme temperature has great impact on the flight activities. It is important to improve the flight quality by providing accurate and effective information of forecast.