贸易便利化评价指标体系研究及其应用

Quantitative Evaluation System of Trade Facilitation and its Application

从口岸效率、关税环境、基础设施及服务、信息和通信技术、商务环境五个方面遴选若干指标,运用德尔菲法和层次分析法构建了对贸易便利化进行科学测评的综合指标体系,并合理确定了各指标的权重指数,将贸易便利化指标作为自变量导入传统贸易引力模型,对原模型进行修正。采用我国的25个主要贸易伙伴的数据,对模型进行了实证检验。回归结果表明,包括贸易便利化指标在内的自变量很好地解释了我国出口贸易的情况。同时,这个结果也反证了本文提出的模型贸易便利化测评指标体系构建合理,有较强的说服力。

The index system selects certain indicators from five perspectives such as port efficiency, tariff environment, infrastructure and service, information and communication technology and business environment. Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） was used to construct a comprehensive index system of trade facilitation under open environment, and Delphi method was used to identify the weight of each index. The empirical results of trade facilitation on China＇s 25 major trading partners showed that China＇s level of trade facilitation remains at a low and middle level worldwide. On the basis of the index system, a trade gravity model on trade facilitation index system has been set up based on modification of Linnemannn Model. Empirical research results on China＇s major trading partners have showed that the new model is much more accurate and its goodness of fit is better. Meanwhile, empirical research results also showed that the trade facilitation index system is much persuasive and reasonable.