我国居民消费增长影响因素的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the Influencing Factors on Consumption Growth

我国最终消费率长期处于偏低水平,其中居民消费率较低并持续下降是主要动因。当前中国经济发展步入新常态,扩大内需、促进消费成为宏观调控政策的重要着力点。本文运用主成分分析法对影响居民消费的八个主要因素进行了实证检验,从提高居民收入、推进收入分配改革,完善社会保障体系、优化财政支出制度,发展消费信贷、培育消费热点等方面对促进我国居民消费增长提出政策建议。

In China, the ultimate consumption rate has kept at a low level for a long time. The main reason is that the household consumption rate is low and continues to decline. China’s economic development has entered a new normal, so expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption has become an important focus of macro-control policies. This paper uses principal component analysis to test the eight major factors that influence the consumers’ consumption, and makes policy recommendations to promote the growth of consumption of Chinese residents from increasing household income, promoting income distribution reform, improving social security system, optimizing expenditure system, developing consumer credit, and cultivating consumer preferences, etc.