采用季节性分解方法快速分析药品消耗规律

Rapid Distinguishment of Drug Consumption Patterns by the Seasonal Decomposition Method

目的:建立一种简单易行的快速分析药品消耗规律的方法,提高医院药房管理水平。方法:以吗丁啉片为例,采用时间序列季节性分解方法分析24个月的实际订货量数据,借助SPSS软件提取出几个表达变化趋势的关键分量,包括反映趋势和循环成分的分量(STC)、反映季节性变动的分量(SAF)及去除季节影响后的分量(SAS),通过观察这些分量数据序列的变动规律得出结论;同时与直观法进行比较。结果:季节性分解法的预测准确性较高,其平均绝对百分误差(0.17)明显小于直观法的误差值(0.24)。结论:采用季节性分解方法可以在软件的帮助下迅速且准确地发现药品的消耗规律,在此基础上调整库存策略,可更方便地结合药品的日常管理与长期动态管理,从而提高药品管理水平。

OBJECTIVE：To establish a simple and feasible method for rapid analysis of drug consumption patterns,and to improve the level of hospital pharmacy management. METHODS：Taking Motilium tablet as an example,the actual order amount data of 24 months were analyzed by time series seasonal decomposition method;several key components of change trend were extracted by SPSS software,i.g. smoothed trend-cycle（STC）,seasonal factors（SAF）and seasonally adjusted series（SAS）. The variation of components data series was observed to obtain the conclusion,and then compared with direct-vision method. RESULTS：The seasonal decomposition method had high prediction accuracy,the mean absolute percent error（MARE）（0.17）was less than that of error value by direct-vision method（0.24） significantly. CONCLUSIONS：This method can found drug consumption patterns quickly and accurately with the help of software. Based on this aspect,stock adjustment strategy can combine daily management and long-term dynamic management conveniently so as to improve the level of drug management.