基于VAR模型的新疆经济增长与高等教育规模关系的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between the Economic Growth of Xinjiang and Higher Education Scale based on VAR Model

以构建新疆经济增长与高等教育规模VAR模型为基础,运用Johansen协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等实证方法,分析新疆经济增长与高等教育规模之间的互动关系。结果表明:新疆经济增长与高等教育规模之间存在动态均衡关系以及格兰杰因果关系;从长期均衡关系来看,高等教育规模的扩张对新疆经济增长有正向推动效应;随着高等教育规模每扩大1%,将促进新疆经济增长0.872%。新疆高等教育仍存在较大发展空间。

Based on VAR model, this paper analyses the interaction between the economic growth of Xinjiang and higher education scale by utilizing some empirical methods such as Johansen co - integration test, Granger causality, impulse - response function and variance analysis and so on. Results indicate that, dynamic equilibrium and Granger causality exist between Xinjiang economic growth and higher education scale ; according to long - term balance relationship, the expansion of higher education scale is beneficial to Xinjiang economic growth ; with the higher education scale expands every one percent, it will cause Xinjiang economic growth 0.872 percent. From these three aspects, Xinjiang higher education still has much larger development space.