基于最大幸福原则的多受灾点医疗队支援指派模型

Assignment Model of Multiple-area Post-disaster Medical Teams Based on Greatest Happiness Principle

基于最大幸福原则,以多灾点总体死亡人数最少化为目标,提出灾后医疗队支援指派决策方法。首先,引入伤情恶化的随机演化概率,构建灾区伤员的救治函数,建立指派方案与各灾点伤员死亡人数的函数关系。然后,构建一个整数非线性规划模型描述指派问题,并借助Lingo软件求解。最后,参考5.12汶川大地震相关医疗数据统计文献,设计一个4×3指派算例,并对算例求解和分析。结果表明:兼顾灾情与距离的医疗队支援指派模型,与灾情优先和距离优先策略相比,可确定更优的支援方案。

Based on greatest happiness principle, a decision making method of medical team assignment among multiple areas is proposed to realize objective of total fatalities minimization. First, stochastic transition probability of triage levels is introduced, which is the basis of casualty rescue function. Then we establish the function from assignment solution to number of fatalities, translate the proposed problem to an integer nonlinear programming model, and use Lingo to find solution of the model. Finally, a 4 × 2, scale simulation experiment is clone according to data of 5.12 WenChuan earthquake. The result show that compared with severity first and distance first strategies, the strategy tradeoff between severity and distance, determines better support allocation solution.