从产能过剩视角看“中国之谜”成因

Causes of " Chinese Puzzle" in View of Excess Production Capacity

近年来,中国高货币供应与低通货膨胀共存的现象十分明显,造成这一问题的根源在于日益严重的产能过剩。产能过剩使企业过度投资、过度负债,造成银行不良贷款率升高,促使不合理货币需求增加,最终推高了货币供应量。产能过剩也在一定程度上使产品供给过剩,压低企业利润水平并减少市场需求,从而抑制产品价格的上涨。同时,金融危机引起的出口不力又减轻了外汇储备带来的通胀压力,起到缓解通货膨胀的作用。中国出现了高货币供应下低通货膨胀的"中国之谜"这一现象。就现阶段而言,解决产能过剩问题要从树立合理的政绩观、完善银行考核机制、引导货币流向、完善企业退出机制和扩大内需等方面入手。

The phenomenon of the coexistence of high money supply and low inflation in China has been rather obvious for the past few years.The root of the problem lies in the increasingly severe excess production capacity.Excess production capacity drives the enterprises＇over-investment,over-debt which cause the rise of the banks＇non-performing loan ratio,thus promote the increase of unreasonable money supply,and finally push up the money supply.Meanwhile,excess production capacity leads to the excess product supply to some extent and cuts down the market demand by lowering down the enterprises＇profits.The poor export alleviates the inflationary pressure from the foreign currency reserve which restrains the inflation.Thus the phenomenon of coexistence of high money supply and low inflation i.e.the＂Chinese puzzle＂is explained.At the present stage,to solve the problem of excess production capacity,it is necessary to set up the right achievement view,improve the bank assessment mechanism,guide the money flow,perfect the enterprise exit mechanism and boost domestic demand.