基于动态贝叶斯网络的可修GO法模型算法

Algorithm based-on dynamic Bayesian networks for repairable GO methodology model

GO法是评价复杂系统可靠性和安全性的有效方法,除了能描述多状态时序特性外,还能表达系统的复杂动态维修行为.针对这种带有动态可修特性的系统GO法模型,提出一种基于动态贝叶斯网络的新算法.首先将GO法模型中的可修操作符和不可修操作符转换成动态贝叶斯网络,然后将整体模型通过贝叶斯软件进行模型求解.新方法结合贝叶斯网络理论的成熟算法和软件,可得到系统可用度随时间变化的曲线和给定时间点的瞬时可靠性指标,并且无需考虑共有信号问题.基于动态贝叶斯网络理论的新算法规则简单统一,便于工程应用.

GO methodology was an effective method of evaluating the reliability and the security of complex systems. Besides the capability to describe the sequence characteristics of multi-states,GO methodology was also capable of expressing complex dynamic repair behavior of the systems. For GO methodology models whose systems containing the dynamic repairable characteristic,a new algorithm based on the Bayesian networks was presented. The algorithm firstly mapped the repairable and unrepairable operators into dynamic Bayesian networks,and then mapped the whole model into Bayesian networks software to solve the problem.With the support of the mature algorithm and software,this new algorithm is capable not only of figuring out the curves of reliability that is changed over time but also the reliability index on the determined time point without caring about the shared signals. This new algorithm based on the Bayesian networks theory is governed by unified simple rules and it is quite convenient to apply in engineering.