基于协整和灰色模型的上海市私家车保有量影响因素分析

Analyzing the Total Number of Shanghai Private Cars Based on Co-integration and Grey Model

从缓解上海市交通拥堵角度出发，运用协整与灰色关联度两种分析方法，对上海市私家车保有量的影响因素展开研究，同时依据灰色理论预测了未来5年的私家车保有量。结果表明，轨道交通运营车辆数量是主要影响因素；为控制私家车保有量的增长，需要加快轨道交通的建设，提高市民低碳出行的意识。

From the perspective of easing traffic congestion in Shanghai, co-integration and grey correlation analysis methods are used to launch the research on Shanghai private vehicle inventory influence factors. The results show that the rail transit operation vehicles quantity is the main influence factor. At the same time, according to the grey theory, private car ownership in the next five years is predicted. Therefore, in order to control the growth of private car owner- ship ,it is necessary to speed up the construction of rail transportation and raise the awareness of low carbon travel.