城镇化背景下食品消费的演进路径:中国经验

Food Consumption Evolution Path in Urbanization:China's Experience

改革开放以来,中国开启了史无前例的城镇化进程。在此过程中,食品消费总量快速增长,食品消费结构不断升级。通过对中国1995~2012年度省级城乡消费数据的观察,居民消费除了具有典型的区域特征之外,还呈现出空间上的渐次递进的特点,这为研究中国食品消费演进提供了样本。以此为基础,本文采用QUAIDS模型估计了不同时点的食品消费特征,从而分离出食品消费演进路径中的＂收入效应＂与＂迁移效应＂;此外,考虑到食品消费在时间与空间上存在渐次递进的＂增长—稳定＂机制,本文根据2030年的外生设定条件,模拟了中国食品消费顶峰的具体情景。分析表明,中国食品消费顶峰所带来的生产与进口压力均在可接受范围之内。基于分析结果,本文认为,中国有必要适度调整现行的农业支持政策,以适应未来食品消费的新变化。

China has begun its unprecedented process of urbanization ever since the reform and opening-up.In this process,the total food consumption has been growing rapidly,and the food consumption structure has been constantly upgraded.By the provincial urban and rural consumption data of China duringl995-2012,the food consumption is characterized by not only regional features,but also successive spatial progressiveness,which provides a sample of food consumption evolution in China.In this paper,food consumption characteristic coefficients are estimated by the QUAIDS model,in which 'income effect' and 'migration effect' are isolated in food consumption evolution path.Considering the 'growing-stabilizing' mechanism in the successive progressiveness in food consumption,specific scenarios are simulated about the food consumption summit of China in 2030,with exogenously set variables.Estimation results show that the pressures on production and import brought by food consumption summit are acceptable.Based on the relevant results,it is suggested that the current domestic agricultural support policies in China are necessary to adjust for the changes of food consumption in the future.