农村劳动力外流对粮食生产的影响:来自中国的证据

The Influence of Rural Labor Outflow on Food Production:From the Evidence of China

粮食安全是中国＂三农＂问题的核心问题之一,而农村劳动力外流可能对粮食安全产生重要影响。本文采用2001~2013年的面板数据,基于扩展的C-D生产函数分析了农村劳动力外流对粮食生产的影响及其区域差异。研究结果表明,农村劳动力外流对全国、粮食主产区和粮食产销平衡区的粮食产量没有产生显著影响,而对粮食主销区的粮食产量产生了显著的负向影响。充分考虑粮食主产区、粮食主销区和粮食产销平衡区的资源禀赋差异和区域特征,制定差异化的农村劳动力流动政策和粮食安全政策,将有利于保障中国的粮食供给安全。

Food security is a core problem of issues concerning agriculture,countryside and farmers in China,and the rural labor outflow may have a significant influence on food security.This paper uses the panel data from 2001 to 2013,based on the extended C-D production function to make an empirical analysis of the rural labor outflow's influence on food production and its regional differences.The results show that the rural labor outflow has a remarkable negative influence on food production in the main grain sales areas.However,it is not significant in other areas.Fully considering the difference of resources endowment and regional characteristics in different areas,and making different policies of labor mobility and food security will be beneficial to ensure the safety of China's food supply.