城市人口规模与住房数量增长研究

Urban Population and Housing Growth in China

我国城市化政策和住房制度变迁的高度契合,以及城市人口规模与住房数量变动曲线的一致性,都反映出城市人口规模与住房数量之间的紧密联系。过去60多年来人口增长对城市住房数量增加的贡献率达到60%。未来我国城市人口将继续增长,居住条件将继续改善,从而导致城市住房数量将继续增加。这其中城市人口增长的贡献仍将超过60%。未来政策制定过程中,城市住房政策应与城市化政策相一致,城市住房规划应处理好总量短缺与结构过剩的关系。

The changes in consistency of urbanization policy and housing system, as well as the consistency of the curve reflect the close links between urban population size and the number of housing. Meanwhile, factor decomposition method estimates show that the contribution rate of population growth to the increase of housing number in urban accounted for 60% over the past 60 years. In future, urban population will continue to grow and living conditions will continue to improve, so the number of housing will continue to increase. Among them the contribution rate of urban population growth will exceed 60%. Policy implications include that housing policy should be consistent with the urbanization trends and urban housing plan should be based on continuing to increase of housing.