劳动力流动、产业转移与城市化体系调整--基于新经济地理模型的分析及对策建议

Labors Flow, Industries Transfer and the Adjustment of City System: Analysis and Policies Based on New Economic Geography Model

本文首先基于新经济地理模型框架系统分析劳动力流动、产业转移对城市产出及城市体系演变的影响机理,得出在不同城市化阶段,基于不同的技术倾向、规模报酬条件与运输成本高低,要素流动对城市体系演变的影响有明显差异。然后根据结论解释了劳动力"东南流"对产业转移的替代,东部的劳动密集型技术倾向以及中西部的重化工业化均不利于城市产出增长与城市化持续发展。最后分区域提出中西部应维系与增强人力资本优势、防止重化工业化倾向以加快承接产业转移;东部地区需要加快产业结构升级,转型发展资本与技术密集型产业,以应对城市化后期的"拥挤效应"挑战。

Firstly this paper systematically analyzes the influence of labor flows and industries transfer on the outputs of cities and city system based on the New Economic Geography Model. It figures out the different effects according to the different stages of urbanization, technology bias, returns to scale, and transportation costs.Then it explains that the labors＂ ＂south-east flow＂ replacing the industries transfer, labor-intensive technology tendency in East and heavy industrialization in Midwest do harm to the outputs of cities and the equilibrium of city system.Finally it fingers out Midwest should maintain and enhance human capital advantage, and prevent the heavy industrialization to accelerate industrial transfer.East should accelerate the upgrading of industrial structure, develop the capital and technology intensive industries in order to deal with the challenge of＂crowding effect＂.